At the end of 2009 we looked back at the year that passed and forward to 2010 to identify some key insights and trends. Maybe we cheated but it looks like our crystal ball for 2010 was right on the spot for 4 out of 5 of ourpredictions.
Review of our predictions for 2010
1. Breakthrough for mobile marketing
Most importantly the breakthrough for mobile marketing and apps have now happened which led to a revenue growth of more than 125% for Golden Gekko in the middle of a global financial crisis. One key factor was that major brands such as GAP, Zara, Domino's Pizza and Mango launched m-Commerce initiatives which all surpassed expectations making the mobile platform a business critical channel.
2. Increased mobile platform fragmentation
We saw an increase in fragmentation, which came true with more versions and hardware configurations of Android, Samsung Bada, Windows Mobile 7, with renewed investments in Palm WebOS by HP and MeeGo announced by Nokia and Intel.
3. Android accelerates past iPhone
As expected Android surpassed iPhone as the most sold smartphone OS, while the iOS market share growth stabilised.
4. Mobile networks collapse under traffic load
Finally, several of the networks in the UK (O2) and US (AT&T) experience vastly reduced performance due to smartphones and dongles.
5. Improved efficiency in mobile service development
The one prediction which did not really materialize was improved efficiency in mobile service delivery through new tools and products. The reason is most likely that most of the tools and services are not good enough yet which could be a great opportunity for 2011.
The key trends 2010
1. Launch of the iPad and other tablets
In January Apple announced the iPad which has ever since been sold at an amazing rate although I think the usage patterns have surprised quite a few. Most of the usage takes place at home rather than while mobile. At the same time other manufacturers, despite promises, failed to bring out competitive devices during 2010 even though Samsung managed to sell about 1 million.
2. Microsoft Windows Phone 7
Maybe it was because expectations were low but reviews of the Windows Phone 7 operating system and phones have been very good. Unique user interface, great social networking integration, excellent SDK for app development and all in all the first real smartphone OS from Microsoft.
3. Launch of iAds
When Apple acquired Qattro Wireless the iAd formats with rich media had already been developed but Apple took it and turned it into a great new innovation. Although the impact in terms of mobile advertising was very small in 2010 iAds has set the benchmark for mobile ads for the next couple of years.
4. Launch of 50+ appstores by operators and handset manufacturers
The openness of Android is both good and bad in terms of security, fragmentation and developer control. One slightly unexpected result however is that everyone is now launching their own appstores. In 2010 Android appstores were launched by Vodafone, Telefonica, Verizon Wireless, Orange, Sony-Ericsson, LG, Samsung and many many more. We expect this trend to continue in 2011 making distribution of Android apps more challenging for developers but also giving them more opportunities to sell and promote their apps.
5. Blackberry proving that they can hold the fort
Many analysts thought that RIM was down for the count in the beginning of 2010 with the competition from iPhone and Android but over and over again they have beaten forecasts in terms of sales. Maybe there is demand for something different than the iPhone even though the app environment and browser is nowhere close even on the latest Blackberry 6 devices? And it will be interesting to see what is yet to come. In the past 12 months RIM have acquired one user interface expert (TAT), one SDK developer (QNX) to be used as basis for the new tablets and a couple of app developers (DataViz and Cellmania).
Our predictions for 2011 are
1. Smartphones for everyone
The price of Android phones is dropping drastically with the low end expected to reach 30-40 euro by the end of 2011.* You can already buy a ZTE Blade for about 120 euro with a specification similar to the Nexus One and other manufacturers such as LG, Huewai, Lenovo and Dell will launch low-end Android phones throughout 2011. In addition to this Nokia will continue to offer Symbian for as little as 50 euro and RIM will offer Blackberries at around the 100 Euro mark. There may also be some surprises from Apple with iOS and HP with WebOS. The exciting thing about the drastic drop in prices is that smartphones will reach mass market allowing businesses and developers to reach a much greater audience. The challenge will be to see if app usage is still sustainable or if the early adopters have a different behaviour.
* All quoted prices are list prices for an unlocked phone without contract. Prices with contracts vary depending on country and operator.
2. Mobile is going from a marketing to a business critical channel
In 2009 we talked about mobile advertising shifting to mobile marketing. Now it's time for the next phase. Based on soft launches in 2008-2010 many brands are now seeing mobile deliver substantial revenues with examples including Opentable, eBay, Amazon and Domino's Pizza. Retail brands such as H&M, Zara, GAP are now following suite with major investments expecting that the mobile channel could be as big as the web or even bigger.
3. Multi-platform strategies will be the key to successful mobile strategies
Although a lot of businesses are now turning to mobile web including XHTML and HTML5 as the base platform for their mobile business, downloadable apps continue to drive innovation and discovery. The app platforms continue to develop extremely rapidly with at least one major release per year from Apple, Google, HP/Palm with new functionality and business opportunities. Mobile web on the other hand is based on standards with considerably slower evolution since everyone needs to agree. Therefore the gap between native apps and browser based services will only get larger for now. Mobile browsers could potentially evolve as fast as the apps but then the advantages of standardised coding would disappear. In conclusion businesses and developers that want to stay ahead in mobile will have to develop for and support multiple platforms including XHTML, HTML5, iOS, Android and maybe Symbian/MeeGo, Blackberry and Windows Mobile 7.
4. Breakthrough for m-payments and NFC
With Google introducing NFC (Near Field Communication) support with the launch of Nexus S and Apple expected to follow with NFC on the iPhone 5 we expect a breakthrough for NFC and related services in 2011 although the eco system will take a long time to develop. In Japan NFC already has already replaced tickets and magnetic cards on the tube and allows you to pay for physical good in stores just like a debit card. And the potential services that can be offered are almost endless. NFC equipped devices should in theory be able to communicate or listen to RFID chips that are already everywhere. We could put sensors in flower pots that tell your phone when they need to get watered, products in the store could give you information instantly without the need for barcode scanning, the phone could store your loyalty cards for air miles or hotels.
The breakthrough in 2011 will be in terms of innovation and initiatives by major players rather than mass market adaptation which will still take many years.
5. Rapid growth for tools that improve mobile service and app delivery
This was a prediction for 2010 that did not materialise but we have not given up. Historically businesses that offer developer and service delivery tools in mobile have not been very successful with the greatest exception being Admob. The reason has mainly been that the buyers haven't had sufficient skills and knowledge to use self-service tools and therefore preferred to buy a full service offering making it difficult for mobile marketing companies to establish scalable business models. Another reason is that few marketing agencies want to use template based solutions something Golden Gekko has experienced with Tino as well as Mobile Rhodi with their service. In 2011 we believe that this will change with more experienced marketers and better tools. The main areas of development will be mobile ad serving (Adfonic), CRM and messaging services (e.g. texting.ly), mobile content management systems (thinkshed), self-service app development services (Tino and Mobile Roadie) and appstore distribution.
Happy New Year 2011!
In January Apple announced the iPad which has ever since been sold at an amazing rate although I think the usage patterns have surprised quite a few. Most of the usage takes place at home rather than while mobile. At the same time other manufacturers, despite promises, failed to bring out competitive devices during 2010 even though Samsung managed to sell about 1 million.
2. Microsoft Windows Phone 7
Maybe it was because expectations were low but reviews of the Windows Phone 7 operating system and phones have been very good. Unique user interface, great social networking integration, excellent SDK for app development and all in all the first real smartphone OS from Microsoft.
3. Launch of iAds
When Apple acquired Qattro Wireless the iAd formats with rich media had already been developed but Apple took it and turned it into a great new innovation. Although the impact in terms of mobile advertising was very small in 2010 iAds has set the benchmark for mobile ads for the next couple of years.
4. Launch of 50+ appstores by operators and handset manufacturers
The openness of Android is both good and bad in terms of security, fragmentation and developer control. One slightly unexpected result however is that everyone is now launching their own appstores. In 2010 Android appstores were launched by Vodafone, Telefonica, Verizon Wireless, Orange, Sony-Ericsson, LG, Samsung and many many more. We expect this trend to continue in 2011 making distribution of Android apps more challenging for developers but also giving them more opportunities to sell and promote their apps.
5. Blackberry proving that they can hold the fort
Many analysts thought that RIM was down for the count in the beginning of 2010 with the competition from iPhone and Android but over and over again they have beaten forecasts in terms of sales. Maybe there is demand for something different than the iPhone even though the app environment and browser is nowhere close even on the latest Blackberry 6 devices? And it will be interesting to see what is yet to come. In the past 12 months RIM have acquired one user interface expert (TAT), one SDK developer (QNX) to be used as basis for the new tablets and a couple of app developers (DataViz and Cellmania).
Our predictions for 2011 are
1. Smartphones for everyone
The price of Android phones is dropping drastically with the low end expected to reach 30-40 euro by the end of 2011.* You can already buy a ZTE Blade for about 120 euro with a specification similar to the Nexus One and other manufacturers such as LG, Huewai, Lenovo and Dell will launch low-end Android phones throughout 2011. In addition to this Nokia will continue to offer Symbian for as little as 50 euro and RIM will offer Blackberries at around the 100 Euro mark. There may also be some surprises from Apple with iOS and HP with WebOS. The exciting thing about the drastic drop in prices is that smartphones will reach mass market allowing businesses and developers to reach a much greater audience. The challenge will be to see if app usage is still sustainable or if the early adopters have a different behaviour.
* All quoted prices are list prices for an unlocked phone without contract. Prices with contracts vary depending on country and operator.
2. Mobile is going from a marketing to a business critical channel
In 2009 we talked about mobile advertising shifting to mobile marketing. Now it's time for the next phase. Based on soft launches in 2008-2010 many brands are now seeing mobile deliver substantial revenues with examples including Opentable, eBay, Amazon and Domino's Pizza. Retail brands such as H&M, Zara, GAP are now following suite with major investments expecting that the mobile channel could be as big as the web or even bigger.
3. Multi-platform strategies will be the key to successful mobile strategies
Although a lot of businesses are now turning to mobile web including XHTML and HTML5 as the base platform for their mobile business, downloadable apps continue to drive innovation and discovery. The app platforms continue to develop extremely rapidly with at least one major release per year from Apple, Google, HP/Palm with new functionality and business opportunities. Mobile web on the other hand is based on standards with considerably slower evolution since everyone needs to agree. Therefore the gap between native apps and browser based services will only get larger for now. Mobile browsers could potentially evolve as fast as the apps but then the advantages of standardised coding would disappear. In conclusion businesses and developers that want to stay ahead in mobile will have to develop for and support multiple platforms including XHTML, HTML5, iOS, Android and maybe Symbian/MeeGo, Blackberry and Windows Mobile 7.
4. Breakthrough for m-payments and NFC
With Google introducing NFC (Near Field Communication) support with the launch of Nexus S and Apple expected to follow with NFC on the iPhone 5 we expect a breakthrough for NFC and related services in 2011 although the eco system will take a long time to develop. In Japan NFC already has already replaced tickets and magnetic cards on the tube and allows you to pay for physical good in stores just like a debit card. And the potential services that can be offered are almost endless. NFC equipped devices should in theory be able to communicate or listen to RFID chips that are already everywhere. We could put sensors in flower pots that tell your phone when they need to get watered, products in the store could give you information instantly without the need for barcode scanning, the phone could store your loyalty cards for air miles or hotels.
The breakthrough in 2011 will be in terms of innovation and initiatives by major players rather than mass market adaptation which will still take many years.
5. Rapid growth for tools that improve mobile service and app delivery
This was a prediction for 2010 that did not materialise but we have not given up. Historically businesses that offer developer and service delivery tools in mobile have not been very successful with the greatest exception being Admob. The reason has mainly been that the buyers haven't had sufficient skills and knowledge to use self-service tools and therefore preferred to buy a full service offering making it difficult for mobile marketing companies to establish scalable business models. Another reason is that few marketing agencies want to use template based solutions something Golden Gekko has experienced with Tino as well as Mobile Rhodi with their service. In 2011 we believe that this will change with more experienced marketers and better tools. The main areas of development will be mobile ad serving (Adfonic), CRM and messaging services (e.g. texting.ly), mobile content management systems (thinkshed), self-service app development services (Tino and Mobile Roadie) and appstore distribution.
Happy New Year 2011!
