The mobile OS battle is not over yet

We frequently get told that developing for other platforms than iOS and Android is meaningless. Many declare all other platforms dead. For the last 3 years, we’ve been told that J2ME is dead. But still in 2011, on a worldwide base, there will be more J2ME enabled devices sold than smartphones. People have also been telling us that Blackberry is a dead platform, that Microsoft has zero chance to succeed in mobile, that no one will develop apps for Palm/HP WebOS and that WAC is a failure before it has even had a chance to launch.

We believe it is very dangerous to make statements like this. The industry moves extremely quickly and there are a lot of factors involved. This is why we believe that the mobile OS battle will continue for some time:

1. The operators/carriers don’t want Apple and Google to gain complete dominance

The operator device teams at operators made it clear during conversations at Mobile World Congress that they don’t want Google or Apple to dominate completely. They will continue to back Nokia with the Windows Phone, RIM with Blackberry OS, Limo as the operator partnership and WAC as a cross-platform development platform.

2. Failing is not an option

For RIM, HP and Microsoft failing is not an option. The Blackberry OS made RIM successful and this is what lead HP to acquire Palm WebOS. Microsoft is probably the company that has the most to lose. Their strategic deal with Nokia they has proven how far they are willing to go to achieve their objectives. If RIM fail with Blackberry OS they will go down for the count as a smart phone manufacturer.

3. Device manufacturers and OS developers have deep pockets

Nokia, Samsung, RIM, HP and Microsoft all have big cash piles to execute thei mobile OS strategy. They may not get the same number of app developers to adopt their platform as Apple or Google and they may fail in the long term. However, it does mean that they can invest huge amounts of money in marketing, pay developers for app development and get big brands and services such as Facebook, Twitter, Foursquare, Google, etc. to build for their platform. They will not give up in the next 2-3 years.

     

4. Consumers still want choice

There is still demand for different solutions by consumers. Not only is the mobile phone a fashion statement - people want different looking phones - but there is also a demand for different screen sizes, input mechanisms and shapes. A great example is Blackberry which has continued to be very successful among business users as well as teenagers thanks to the keyboard and great messaging services.

5. Money is not everything

Having said that several of the mobile OS players have very deep pockets money is definitely not everything. Nokia allegedly spent as much money on R&D for Symbian and Qt as Apple has on R&D. Despite this they failed. At the same time Palm WebOS, which is considered one of the most advanced smartphone platforms, was developed by a small team within Palm and with the distribution of HP it might succeed.

What do we bet on for the future?

Having said that the battle will continue there is no question about who is dominating at the moment. iOS and Android are currently the platforms of choice. Other platforms are prioritized, based on promotion agreements with the device manufacturers and carriers. We believe that there are great opportunities for differentiation and distribution by embracing the full mobile ecosystem.

What's going on in the world of mobile apps and devices?

What's going on in the world of mobile apps and devices?
The mobile echo system keeps on evolving faster than ever and it's often difficult to see the macro trends with all the day to day announcements and comments about winners and losers. One of the most exciting things is that nothing is certain.

Here's a short summary of the trends that we are seeing and longer term impact:

Handset Operating Systems and Development Platforms

• iPhone - Continues to evolve with OS4 being a great leap forward and with the best UI and SDK for developers but overall market share is stablising at about 13.5% of smartphones globally and with only one new device release per year growth is likely to be tempered going forward
• Android - Outsold iPhone in Q2 and increased their market share by 886% since last year with more handset manufacturers continuing to launch devices and competing against each other with vastly improved hardware including QWERTY keyboards, better cameras as well as very competitive prices and is expected by most to be the nr 1 smartphone OS in 2011
• RIM continues to hold on to a big share of the smartphone market with 18% based on a wide range of communication and utility focused devices for business users as well as the youth market with an amazing usage adaption among teenagers in the UK thanks to Blackberry Messenger but market share is expected to decline unless Blackberry 6 delivers improved app support and user interface 
• Nokia has gone from the undisputed leader to an underdog despite still being the global leader in overall market share (36% in Q2) and smartphones (43% in Q2) due to lack of great new devices and unclear strategy of Symbian and MeeGo but we would definitely not rule them out as they still have deep pockets and a very loyal base in emerging markets and a partnership with Intel with even deeper pockets and long term bets riding on the success of MeeGo
• Palm WebOS went from being a dead horse to a joker when HP acquired Palm earlier this year thanks to having developed the 2nd best OS to iPhone in terms of user experience and based on open standards and as the largest PC manufacturer worldwide HP won't give up in the first place
• Microsoft Mobile has constantly failed to deliver a really appealing user experience since they first launched the SPV in 2002 and although they undoubtedly provide the best PC - Mobile integration it hasn't been enough but with Windows Mobile 7, the biggest development community in the world and a track record of not giving up they might still have a chance to find a market and slowly grow over the next couple of years from 5% of the smartphone market in Q2
• Samsung Bada Wave is another unexpected player in the smartphone OS space as they also deliver devices with Android and Windows Mobile but Bada has outperformed most people’s expectations in terms of user experience although it essentially is a Android copycat based on Linux and Java and won’t have much chance in the high-end smartphone segment
• Webruntime Widgets are not really a OS or a platform but with the popularity of webkit based mobile browsers and the push for standardisation among carriers the widget standard (also referred to as JIL by Vodafone, webruntime by Nokia and WebOS by Palm) it's becoming an important platform and might actually have a good chance of establishing a standard for apps that don't require the latest and greatest from each of the individual platforms.
• Java ME continues to be the leading platform in terms of installed base and handset sales supported by Symbian, Samsung Bada, Windows Mobile, Blackberry and most proprietary OS from Nokia (e.g. S40), Sony-Ericsson, LG and Samsung with well over 2 billion devices worldwide and over 0.4 billion downloads per month with majority of Java downloads now in emerging markets such as India, Indonesia, Brazil and China
   

The full Q2 smartphone market share report is available here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-10839034

Handset manufacturersRather than speculating over their futures we think that it's simply interesting to look at their worldwide market share of sales today and which operating systems they are betting on.
1. Nokia (36.1%) - S40 for low-end, Symbian S60 in transition and MeeGo as the future strategy
2. Samsung (20.7%) – Mix of proprietary OS for low-end and Android, Windows Mobile and Bada on mid to high-end
3. LG (10.0%) – Transitioning from proprietary OS to Android as their main platform for consumers and windows mobile for business with more than 10 devices planned to launch in the next 3-6 months
4. RIM (3.6%) – Full focus on Blackberry OS
5. Sony-Ericsson (3.6%) – Selling devices based on Proprietary OS, Windows Mobile, Symbian and Android but betting on Symbian as main device going forward
6. Apple (2.8%?) – iPhone OS
7. Motorola (2.8%) – Returning from the dead with Android as their core platform and extremely strong performance in the US during the last 2 quarters thanks to Droid
8. HTC (2.5%?) – Fully focused on Android and Windows Mobile and by many considered the leading Android manufacturer

And don’t forget about Huawei and ZTE from China and of course HP/Palm.

More stats available from:http://mobile.downloadatoz.com/article,global-mobile-phone-market-statistics-in-q2-2010.html

In conclusionsThe media and financial community seems to believe that there can only be two or maybe three winners in the smartphone space like in the PC world with Microsoft Windows, Mac OSX and various Linux versions. What if it’s possible with more? Maybe the market is so big, the technology development so fast and customer preferences so different that there is room for more than three? Google Android definitely looks like the favorite of the day but we don’t think the battle is close to being over. Like we said in a previous update. “In mobile fragmentation is forever. Deal with it.”

Friday: Mobile World Congress in Barcelona 2009 - Next big thing?

Next week the biggest telecom event of the year takes over Barcelona. We will be at the fair as usual networking and checking out what others are doing. If you haven't already then please contact us for a meeting.

This year we will look out for

• anything app-store related from Nokia, Microsoft, Samsung, etc (big question is how they will succeed where e.g. Handango has previously failed)
• to what extent mobile content and services companies can continue to push advertisement based business model in the current climate
• what Sun has to say about the future of mobile Java (they have some kind of an announcement)
• mobile e-mail - can someone really offer a consumer e-mail service that is close to the experience of the Blackberry but without needing a special handset and mobile operator subscription. Momail is one very interesting company in this space!
  
• location based communities - Google just launched Altitude and there are about 50 other companies out there with similar services but is there anything truly disruptive? We are obviously biased as close partners to GeoMe but we think that GeoMe could be the answer!
  

See you at the fair!

3333 Mobile Devices

Less than one year after setting up a new phone database for the mobile websites and applications delivered by Golden Gekko on behalf of clients and partners the database has reached the magical number of 3333 unique phone models (e.g. Nokia N95, Nokia N96, Blackberry 8310, Sony-Ericsson W810 and so on).


Is this a milestone? Not really but it does show the complexity of delivering mobile applications and sites compared to the web. These 3333 phones each have a unique specification including user agent, screen resolution, application size (jar size), Java JSR support, Java exceptions, browser type, image support and lots of other variables that have to be checked when a site or application is rendered on the device.

How many unique mobile internet enabled phones are there then? Across the globe people estimate at least 5000 (and growing) different phone models with mobile internet browser so we are still some way off to covering all of them. With the current growth in services using our platform we expect to be considerably closer by the end of 2009 but who knows how many it will be by then…