Top 10 activities and predictions in mobile 2010 to 2011

Once again it’s time for us to summarise the past year´s key trends and predict the future for 2011.

At the end of 2009 we looked back at the year that passed and forward to 2010 to identify some key insights and trends. Maybe we cheated but it looks like our crystal ball for 2010 was right on the spot for 4 out of 5 of ourpredictions.

Review of our predictions for 2010

1. Breakthrough for mobile marketing

Most importantly the breakthrough for mobile marketing and apps have now happened which led to a revenue growth of more than 125% for Golden Gekko in the middle of a global financial crisis. One key factor was that major brands such as GAP, Zara, Domino's Pizza and Mango launched m-Commerce initiatives which all surpassed expectations making the mobile platform a business critical channel.

2. Increased mobile platform fragmentation

We saw an increase in fragmentation, which came true with more versions and hardware configurations of Android, Samsung Bada, Windows Mobile 7, with renewed investments in Palm WebOS by HP and MeeGo announced by Nokia and Intel.

3. Android accelerates past iPhone

As expected Android surpassed iPhone as the most sold smartphone OS, while the iOS market share growth stabilised.

4. Mobile networks collapse under traffic load

Finally, several of the networks in the UK (O2) and US (AT&T) experience vastly reduced performance due to smartphones and dongles.

5. Improved efficiency in mobile service development

The one prediction which did not really materialize was improved efficiency in mobile service delivery through new tools and products. The reason is most likely that most of the tools and services are not good enough yet which could be a great opportunity for 2011.

The key trends 2010

1. Launch of the iPad and other tablets

In January Apple announced the iPad which has ever since been sold at an amazing rate although I think the usage patterns have surprised quite a few. Most of the usage takes place at home rather than while mobile. At the same time other manufacturers, despite promises, failed to bring out competitive devices during 2010 even though Samsung managed to sell about 1 million.

2. Microsoft Windows Phone 7

Maybe it was because expectations were low but reviews of the Windows Phone 7 operating system and phones have been very good. Unique user interface, great social networking integration, excellent SDK for app development and all in all the first real smartphone OS from Microsoft.

3. Launch of iAds

When Apple acquired Qattro Wireless the iAd formats with rich media had already been developed but Apple took it and turned it into a great new innovation. Although the impact in terms of mobile advertising was very small in 2010 iAds has set the benchmark for mobile ads for the next couple of years.

4. Launch of 50+ appstores by operators and handset manufacturers

The openness of Android is both good and bad in terms of security, fragmentation and developer control. One slightly unexpected result however is that everyone is now launching their own appstores. In 2010 Android appstores were launched by Vodafone, Telefonica, Verizon Wireless, Orange, Sony-Ericsson, LG, Samsung and many many more. We expect this trend to continue in 2011 making distribution of Android apps more challenging for developers but also giving them more opportunities to sell and promote their apps.

5. Blackberry proving that they can hold the fort

Many analysts thought that RIM was down for the count in the beginning of 2010 with the competition from iPhone and Android but over and over again they have beaten forecasts in terms of sales. Maybe there is demand for something different than the iPhone even though the app environment and browser is nowhere close even on the latest Blackberry 6 devices? And it will be interesting to see what is yet to come. In the past 12 months RIM have acquired one user interface expert (TAT), one SDK developer (QNX) to be used as basis for the new tablets and a couple of app developers (DataViz and Cellmania).

Our predictions for 2011 are

1. Smartphones for everyone

The price of Android phones is dropping drastically with the low end expected to reach 30-40 euro by the end of 2011.* You can already buy a ZTE Blade for about 120 euro with a specification similar to the Nexus One and other manufacturers such as LG, Huewai, Lenovo and Dell will launch low-end Android phones throughout 2011. In addition to this Nokia will continue to offer Symbian for as little as 50 euro and RIM will offer Blackberries at around the 100 Euro mark. There may also be some surprises from Apple with iOS and HP with WebOS. The exciting thing about the drastic drop in prices is that smartphones will reach mass market allowing businesses and developers to reach a much greater audience. The challenge will be to see if app usage is still sustainable or if the early adopters have a different behaviour.

* All quoted prices are list prices for an unlocked phone without contract. Prices with contracts vary depending on country and operator.

2. Mobile is going from a marketing to a business critical channel

In 2009 we talked about mobile advertising shifting to mobile marketing. Now it's time for the next phase. Based on soft launches in 2008-2010 many brands are now seeing mobile deliver substantial revenues with examples including Opentable, eBay, Amazon and Domino's Pizza. Retail brands such as H&M, Zara, GAP are now following suite with major investments expecting that the mobile channel could be as big as the web or even bigger.

3. Multi-platform strategies will be the key to successful mobile strategies

Although a lot of businesses are now turning to mobile web including XHTML and HTML5 as the base platform for their mobile business, downloadable apps continue to drive innovation and discovery. The app platforms continue to develop extremely rapidly with at least one major release per year from Apple, Google, HP/Palm with new functionality and business opportunities. Mobile web on the other hand is based on standards with considerably slower evolution since everyone needs to agree. Therefore the gap between native apps and browser based services will only get larger for now. Mobile browsers could potentially evolve as fast as the apps but then the advantages of standardised coding would disappear. In conclusion businesses and developers that want to stay ahead in mobile will have to develop for and support multiple platforms including XHTML, HTML5, iOS, Android and maybe Symbian/MeeGo, Blackberry and Windows Mobile 7.

4. Breakthrough for m-payments and NFC

With Google introducing NFC (Near Field Communication) support with the launch of Nexus S and Apple expected to follow with NFC on the iPhone 5 we expect a breakthrough for NFC and related services in 2011 although the eco system will take a long time to develop. In Japan NFC already has already replaced tickets and magnetic cards on the tube and allows you to pay for physical good in stores just like a debit card. And the potential services that can be offered are almost endless. NFC equipped devices should in theory be able to communicate or listen to RFID chips that are already everywhere. We could put sensors in flower pots that tell your phone when they need to get watered, products in the store could give you information instantly without the need for barcode scanning, the phone could store your loyalty cards for air miles or hotels.

The breakthrough in 2011 will be in terms of innovation and initiatives by major players rather than mass market adaptation which will still take many years.

5. Rapid growth for tools that improve mobile service and app delivery

This was a prediction for 2010 that did not materialise but we have not given up. Historically businesses that offer developer and service delivery tools in mobile have not been very successful with the greatest exception being Admob. The reason has mainly been that the buyers haven't had sufficient skills and knowledge to use self-service tools and therefore preferred to buy a full service offering making it difficult for mobile marketing companies to establish scalable business models. Another reason is that few marketing agencies want to use template based solutions something Golden Gekko has experienced with Tino as well as Mobile Rhodi with their service. In 2011 we believe that this will change with more experienced marketers and better tools. The main areas of development will be mobile ad serving (Adfonic), CRM and messaging services (e.g. texting.ly), mobile content management systems (thinkshed), self-service app development services (Tino and Mobile Roadie) and appstore distribution.

Happy New Year 2011!

To predict the future we must first understand the past. Therefore this year’s top 10 list consists of the top 5 activities in mobile 2009 and our top 5 predictions for 2010.


Top 5 Mobile Activities 2009

1. The year of mobile marketing Every year for the last six years some analyst, media agency, operator or handset manufacturer has forecasted that the next year will be the year of mobile marketing. We are happy to say that from our perspective 2009 was the year when mobile marketing took off. The past 12 months have been incredible in terms of interest around mobile marketing, despite a very difficult financial environment for the advertising industry.


The tipping point had nothing to do with particular media spend on mobile or reaching critical mass in consumer uptake of mobile services however. Instead the main indicator to us was that for the first time brands and businesses across the board took a spontaneous interest in mobile marketing. The number of briefs directly from brands and agencies sky-rocketed compared to previous years and although not every brief resulted in a project we now know that the demand is there. The second indicator was that Google acquired Admob for 750m USD showing that the major internet players are now getting serious about mobile.
Finally we can say goodbye to the year of mobile marketing and concentrate on building a long term profitable marketing channel together with partners and customers.

2. Shift from advertising to marketing In the last couple of years we have moved from a world with impressions to a world with engagements and 2009 was the break-through year with more mobile marketing budgets being invested in the mobile websites and apps than display advertising including search. This trend is in contradiction to most forecasts by analysts such as Gartner, Strategy Analytics, Yankee Group and eMarketer. In reality it has meant that the growth in mobile display advertising was very small in 2009 despite the fact that overall mobile marketing budgets increased with somewhere from 20-50% depending on source. We believe that the trend is more positive as it shows that brands want to engage customers and not only hit them with ads.

3. Appstore explosion 2009 was the year of app mania.
• Apple appstore hit 2 billion downloads and 100.000 available apps
• Marketers across the world started talking about iPhone apps as the must do activity in any digital marketing strategy
• A myriad of new appstores were launched including Nokia OVI, Blackberry App World, Windows Market, Orange Appstore, Samsung Appstore, Vodafone 360 and more
• Existing independent appstores such as Getjar, Mobango, Mobile9 grew exponentially
• The Android appstore started off slowly but accelerated and reached 20.000 apps by the end of the year
• Innovative new app storefronts & reviews sites launched including mplayit on Facebook
In summary: “There’s an app for that!”

4. Increased budgets With increased attention of mobile marketing among marketing planners and brand managers budgets increased despite the tough financial markets as mobile was seen as a necessity to differentiate or in some cases to keep up with the competition. The biggest mobile budget of the year was most likely Nokia to promote Ovi but other more traditional brands such as Volkswagen and Coca Cola also assigned low to medium six digit budgets.

5. Smartphone craze The main driver of the app mania and increase in mobile browsing was continued uptake in smartphone sales lead by Symbian, Blackberry and iPhone. Marketers were surprised by Q3 figures showing that iPhone is still number three in sales despite 80% of the media attention. What it shows is that the battle is not won yet.


Source: Canalys. 2009 unit figures calculated from reported market share in new sales


Top 5 Predictions for 2010

1. Improved efficiency in mobile service development In 2009 the cost of mobile app and mobile website development went up substantially due to a combination of lack of skilled resources and an immature market. In 2010 we expect to see more standardised tools, enhanced processes and improved efficiency as mobile becomes integrated into the overall marketing strategy. We hope and believe that this means that more time and resources can be spent on critical elements of the user experience of mobile including design and usability testing.

2. Mobile becomes a business critical platform With companies starting to generate substantial amounts of business, the mobile platform becomes a business critical service and not just a campaign channel. Companies such as Pizza Hut, BMW, Coca Cola, McDonald’s, Lufthansa, etc have already managed drive acquisitions as well as new revenues from the mobile and the focus will continue during 2010. This may also slow development down for a while as departments’ battle about the ownership of budgets and resources but the long-term implication is that the mobile platform will become just as important as the web.

3. Increased mobile platform fragmentation In 2010 most marketers will shift from doing an iPhone app for PR value to planning mobile services and campaigns that will reach the widest possible audience within their target segments. This means delivering across multiple mobile platforms (iPhone, Android, Java, Blackberry, Windows Mobile, etc) and channels (apps, mobile websites and messaging/SMS) which a high degree of complexity. With the number of mobile platforms still on the rise (Samsung Bada, Vodafone 360 widgets, Palm Pre, etc) mobile specialists will have a big responsibility in making a complex environment simple without dumbing it down. The starting point of any mobile marketing strategy will be to build a mobile website that works across all platforms as the baseline but this won’t meet the consumer demand for a great user experience. The objective should always be to offer the best user experience for each platform and this means delivering a mix of mobile web and mobile apps for many years to come.

4. iPhone growth slows down, Android picks up and others stay neutral The growth of iPhone sales slows down as mobile operators reduce subsidies and promotions for the device whereas Android with a more mobile operator friendly model picks up with new devices from LG, Samsung, Sony-Ericsson and Motorola. The operators will also continue to promote other platforms such as Blackberry, Windows Mobile and LiMo as well as feature phones to avoid domination by Google.

5. Mobile network collapse under traffic load AT&T has seen a 5000% increase in mobile data network traffic over the last three years and with only 3-4% penetration the iPhone made up 50% of all mobile data traffic in the US during 2009. O2 in the UK has seen a similar increase in traffic resulting in network outages, slow network speeds and customer dissatisfaction. At the same time mobile operators will not and cannot keep up with the demand due to shareholder pressure to keep capex investments at a minimum and maximize short term profits. Our prediction is that mobile network reliability and performance in 2010 will get considerably worse with an even greater increase in smartphone sales, uplift in usage and more mobile video & music services launched. The short term solution by operators will be to shift more traffic to wifi networks but with the lack of open wifi infrastructure in Europe this won’t help much. Longer term capacity will build up thanks to competitive forces and consumer demand for a reliable service.

Happy New Year 2010!


This article was published in a shorter version on http://www.gomonews.com/top-10-activities-and-predictions-in-mobile-2009-to-2010/