Sunday 15 August 2010

What's going on in the world of mobile apps and devices?

What's going on in the world of mobile apps and devices?
The mobile echo system keeps on evolving faster than ever and it's often difficult to see the macro trends with all the day to day announcements and comments about winners and losers. One of the most exciting things is that nothing is certain.

Here's a short summary of the trends that we are seeing and longer term impact:

Handset Operating Systems and Development Platforms
  • iPhone - Continues to evolve with OS4 being a great leap forward and with the best UI and SDK for developers but overall market share is stablising at about 13.5% of smartphones globally and with only one new device release per year growth is likely to be tempered going forward
  • Android - Outsold iPhone in Q2 and increased their market share by 886% since last year with more handset manufacturers continuing to launch devices and competing against each other with vastly improved hardware including QWERTY keyboards, better cameras as well as very competitive prices and is expected by most to be the nr 1 smartphone OS in 2011
  • RIM continues to hold on to a big share of the smartphone market with 18% based on a wide range of communication and utility focused devices for business users as well as the youth market with an amazing usage adaption among teenagers in the UK thanks to Blackberry Messenger but market share is expected to decline unless Blackberry 6 delivers improved app support and user interface 
  • Nokia has gone from the undisputed leader to an underdog despite still being the global leader in overall market share (36% in Q2) and smartphones (43% in Q2) due to lack of great new devices and unclear strategy of Symbian and MeeGo but we would definitely not rule them out as they still have deep pockets and a very loyal base in emerging markets and a partnership with Intel with even deeper pockets and long term bets riding on the success of MeeGo
  • Palm WebOS went from being a dead horse to a joker when HP acquired Palm earlier this year thanks to having developed the 2nd best OS to iPhone in terms of user experience and based on open standards and as the largest PC manufacturer worldwide HP won't give up in the first place
  • Microsoft Mobile has constantly failed to deliver a really appealing user experience since they first launched the SPV in 2002 and although they undoubtedly provide the best PC - Mobile integration it hasn't been enough but with Windows Mobile 7, the biggest development community in the world and a track record of not giving up they might still have a chance to find a market and slowly grow over the next couple of years from 5% of the smartphone market in Q2
  • Samsung Bada Wave is another unexpected player in the smartphone OS space as they also deliver devices with Android and Windows Mobile but Bada has outperformed most people’s expectations in terms of user experience although it essentially is a Android copycat based on Linux and Java and won’t have much chance in the high-end smartphone segment
  • Webruntime Widgets are not really a OS or a platform but with the popularity of webkit based mobile browsers and the push for standardisation among carriers the widget standard (also referred to as JIL by Vodafone, webruntime by Nokia and WebOS by Palm) it's becoming an important platform and might actually have a good chance of establishing a standard for apps that don't require the latest and greatest from each of the individual platforms.
  • Java ME continues to be the leading platform in terms of installed base and handset sales supported by Symbian, Samsung Bada, Windows Mobile, Blackberry and most proprietary OS from Nokia (e.g. S40), Sony-Ericsson, LG and Samsung with well over 2 billion devices worldwide and over 0.4 billion downloads per month with majority of Java downloads now in emerging markets such as India, Indonesia, Brazil and China
     

The full Q2 smartphone market share report is available here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-10839034

Handset manufacturersRather than speculating over their futures we think that it's simply interesting to look at their worldwide market share of sales today and which operating systems they are betting on.
1. Nokia (36.1%) - S40 for low-end, Symbian S60 in transition and MeeGo as the future strategy
2. Samsung (20.7%) – Mix of proprietary OS for low-end and Android, Windows Mobile and Bada on mid to high-end
3. LG (10.0%) – Transitioning from proprietary OS to Android as their main platform for consumers and windows mobile for business with more than 10 devices planned to launch in the next 3-6 months
4. RIM (3.6%) – Full focus on Blackberry OS
5. Sony-Ericsson (3.6%) – Selling devices based on Proprietary OS, Windows Mobile, Symbian and Android but betting on Symbian as main device going forward
6. Apple (2.8%?) – iPhone OS
7. Motorola (2.8%) – Returning from the dead with Android as their core platform and extremely strong performance in the US during the last 2 quarters thanks to Droid
8. HTC (2.5%?) – Fully focused on Android and Windows Mobile and by many considered the leading Android manufacturer

And don’t forget about Huawei and ZTE from China and of course HP/Palm.

More stats available from:http://mobile.downloadatoz.com/article,global-mobile-phone-market-statistics-in-q2-2010.html

In conclusionsThe media and financial community seems to believe that there can only be two or maybe three winners in the smartphone space like in the PC world with Microsoft Windows, Mac OSX and various Linux versions. What if it’s possible with more? Maybe the market is so big, the technology development so fast and customer preferences so different that there is room for more than three? Google Android definitely looks like the favorite of the day but we don’t think the battle is close to being over. Like we said in a previous update. “In mobile fragmentation is forever. Deal with it.”

Wednesday 4 August 2010

Blackberry 6 - Good enough or Not?

The media has not been kind to RIM in reviews about Blackberry OS6 so far. See e.g. Mobilecrunch and Moconews. So is Blackberry OS6 good enough or not for RIM to compete with Android, iPhone, WebOS, Windows Mobile 7 and other smartphone OS?

Blackberry has taken the UK teens market by storm thanks to Blackberry Messenger, the QWERTY keyboard and a great camera. Is it possible that not everyone wants a touch screen phone with a big screen? Having had the opportunity to use the iPhone 3GS, Google Nexus One and various other Android phones for a fairly long period of time I must say that the Blackberry Bold (9700) is the only phone I want to use every day for calling, texting, e-mailing and social networks. The touch screen phones are great for games and rich media but not necessarily for the basic communication and organisation features. Almost everyone with both a Blackberry and iPhone or Android phone will admit this.

Having said this Golden Gekko relies on iPhone, Android and other great multimedia OS for mobile app development revenues and have no intentions of defending RIM for providing a poor SDK for apps. With OS6 we hope that RIM will catch up in terms of providing a similar app experience to iPhone and Android and we think that this is actually good enough. What do you think?